Automation taking our jobs

That ship has sailed and is sinking in deep water. People expect more for less every year, while inflation drives up the cost of living faster than wages. The only way to improve productivity is with better tools that let the same number of people, or fewer, do more. Sure, we could do like Asimov's series and ban robots from doing human work, but as that showed, it would stagnate the economy and could only work if the whole world buys in. China, for example, is going all in on replacing humans with robots. Factories can get a robot that can do most of what a human can do right now for $5K/mth. They work 24/7 and swap their batteries in just 3 minutes of downtime. How is a human going to compete with that? That is $6.94/hr plus electricity. Not training time or time off. So if you want a job that will probably still be around in a decade, you'd better learn a trade like plumbing. Something that requires some training, that the average person will not learn, and that interacts directly with people. But even those jobs will probably give way to economic pressure in the following decade. The real question is: how do all those unemployable people live? UBI paid for by these almost totally automated companies. Either directly by taxes on US factories or the sellers of goods imported from automated factories overseas. The 2030s are not going to be fun for the average person while all this transitions. And you will be glad for anything helping stem crime for the next decade or so as this shakes out with all the unemployed and unsupported about.

Fact check: If you make under $66 an hour you're making less than minimum wage in 1970 housing purchasing power.

 Actually, it depends on how you look at it. Minimum wage in 1970 was just $1.60. If you Google it, you will be told it is $13.00 to $13.65 in today's dollars. But some of that might be cheaper electronics. Using gas or car prices, it would be closer to $16. Using home prices, it is more like $32. So how did they get to the $66 figure? It comes mainly from this guy, not a news source. It seems he arrived at the $66 figure by assuming the cost of a mortgage on an average home is 1/4 of your gross. But if median home prices have only gone up 20X, how do they get to 40X? Mortgage rates are about the same now as then. Given the 1970 minimum wage, the average home mortgage would be 69% of their gross income. So there would be no way for them to afford the average home from the $66/hr formula. If you sub in the 69% instead of the 25% assumed to get to the $66 figure, it comes to $11.21/hr. To flip that around, a minimum wage of $7.25/hr and 40 hours per week is just $290. Or about 25% of your monthly gross income. Not sure what you are going to find to rent, much less mortgage, at $290 per month. At $11.21/hr it is a little better at $448.40. That would almost cover half the rent on the average 2-bedroom at 50% of your gross. Granted, it goes farther in the cheapest locations.

AI's driving forces

Increased profits by reducing labor costs: This has been true for all innovations since the wheel. The desired outcome is to improve efficiency and profitability, not just for companies but also for individuals, such as small farmers. Watch this season of Clarkson's Farm to see how it helps small farmers. 

Adding skills to people who lack them: From accessibility to creativity, this also has a long history. The desired outcome is to enable people with disabilities to interact with the world in ways they only dreamed of years ago, and to empower people with ideas to bring them to life where there was no chance before.

Security: Software is now too complex. It’s built on packages that may contain unknown weaknesses. AI reveals just how insecure things really are. These tools are out there and are constantly improved by bad actors. To prevent attacks, we should use AI to proactively find and suggest fixes for our software. Our goal is to stay ahead of bad actors and reduce risks in the coming years, which may be challenging.

Innovation: There is hope. Just as AI found novel ways to win at Go, it may develop solutions to unsolved problems.

The huge con is that it could put most out of work. But the desired outcome is to transition to a society where, with support like UBI funded by corporate taxes, people can focus on creativity and innovation. There will be major resistance and likely a period of economic difficulty. However, the real question is: do we ban AI in the US while the rest of the world advances, risking our global standing?

Employment vs Job Market

In response to U.S. filings for unemployment benefits fall to 226,000 last week as layoffs remain historically low

This may be misleading; the number of new people requesting benefits last week alone is a stronger indication of a pause in layoffs than unemployment levels.

How it feels: Both chain and local restaurants are closing, which is usually a sign that money is tight for those still working and that unemployment is rising. Add to that all the people I see posting and hear from about how bad the job market is. I know the number of recruiters trying to hire me away has dropped way off as well. Lastly, per USAFacts, 6.95 million people have been laid off in 2026, including 1.69 million in April alone.

On the plus side, 2026 is trending a bit below 2025, but that might be a question of running out of people companies can cut and still be operating, and says nothing about those whose benefits have run out, which might be propping up the getting benefits numbers since more run out after 6 months. But St. Louis Fed FRED Chart shows almost a million more people are employed now than at the February low. So the numbers appear to be at odds with how people are experiencing the job market.